When the Indonesian Government Fears AI: Norms, Memes, and Double Standards

The recent arrest of a Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) student for uploading an AI-generated image depicting two men kissing has sparked widespread attention online.

Some netizens interpreted the image as portraying the president and a former president, while many others, especially those unfamiliar with politics, had no idea who the figures were. This is precisely the nature of AI-generated content: it does not replicate real human faces exactly, unlike edited photographs using software like Photoshop or caricatures that are easily recognizable by those familiar with the subject.

The Indonesian National Police’s Criminal Investigation Unit charged the student under the Electronic Information and Transactions Law (UU ITE). Yet, the Constitutional Court (MK) had previously ruled to annul the interpretation of “defamation” within this law. In its considerations, the court stated that provisions under Article 27A of Law 1/2024 regarding defamation via electronic systems should be interpreted narrowly to prevent misuse.

When questioned, palace officials stated that President Prabowo Subianto had never ordered the student’s arrest. It becomes apparent who might actually benefit from this action.

Beyond legal aspects, this case reveals the state’s unpreparedness in facing the AI era and exposes a double standard that risks damaging the government's legitimacy.

The Moral Panic Argument: A Slippery Slope Toward Authoritarianism

Supporters of the arrest might argue that the post violated religious and cultural norms in Indonesia. However, if violations of norms are directly punishable by imprisonment, Indonesia risks shifting from a nation governed by law to a moralistic authoritarian state.

Social and cultural norms should be addressed through dialogue, education, or proportional warnings—not prison bars. In a democracy, not every act deemed “inappropriate” should be criminalized, especially when it involves satire, criticism, or expressions related to public officials.

The Government Champions AI While Failing to Manage Its Risks

The government has been aggressively promoting AI use among students and young people. However, when consequences arise that are not to its liking—such as satirical works or provocative images—the response becomes repressive.

This reveals that the government is neither ethically nor structurally prepared for the AI era.

If the government truly wishes to promote AI, it should:

1. Develop fair and transparent AI regulations so citizens know clear boundaries and violations can be judged objectively.
2. Conduct nationwide digital ethics education.
3. Avoid using laws as tools of unilateral censorship.

The government should respond wisely and proportionally, such as by issuing public clarifications or engaging in dialogue, rather than resorting to criminalization.

In the United States, a leading country in AI development, technology does not automatically equate to repression of expression. There, arrests are reserved for the distribution of harmful deepfakes used for fraud, disinformation, or genuine threats of violence.

For instance:

• A fake announcement that “President Donald Trump has declared war” constitutes disinformation.
• An image depicting Trump with a gun aimed at his head accompanied by direct threats constitutes a “true threat.”

These scenarios lead to arrests because they cause fear or demonstrate a real intent to harm—not merely for controversial artistic or satirical content.

AI as an Experimental Space, Not Just a Public Showcase

In this generative technology era, online creators—especially youth—are free to experiment with AI across various forms: visuals, audio, and text.

Not all such experiments are uploaded online; many remain in personal galleries as part of testing or digital art creation. It is highly likely that countless similar memes are stored privately or circulated in closed communities without public knowledge.

If the state begins criminalizing AI-generated content simply for being controversial, it will foster fear and dangerous self-censorship, stifling creativity, free thought, and openness.

AI, as a tool, is morally neutral. It is humans who require digital ethics, not the threat of criminal punishment.

The state should craft policies that clearly differentiate between private spaces, public spaces, and creative expression spaces. Otherwise, expressions that should contribute to technological growth could be turned into criminal offenses through arbitrary interpretations of norms or power.

Online Scammers Thrive While Remaining Untouched

Ironically, online scammers who blatantly violate the UU ITE—particularly in electronic transactions—rarely face firm action, let alone arrests. These scams often result in victims losing money, personal data, and dignity.

Compare this to the student’s case: no direct victim, no material loss, and no malicious intent to harm—yet he is swiftly prosecuted. This clearly illustrates the unjust and selective application of the law.

UU ITE has increasingly been misused to silence criticism rather than to prevent or combat genuine electronic transaction crimes.

Double Standards: From “Prabowo Insulters” to Cabinet Seats

Even more ironic, several officials now within the power circle were once known for insulting Prabowo Subianto in the past, both verbally and on social media.

Names like “Tukang Sayur” (allegedly Hasan Nasbi) and Rudi Valinka (Rudi Susanto, now a special staff member at the Ministry of Communications and Digital) on Twitter (now X) have made harsh, insulting remarks against Prabowo Subianto publicly. Yet, they have never faced legal action and have even been rewarded with positions.

Even “fufufafa”—who has been confirmed beyond doubt to be Gibran Rakabuming Raka, now serving as Vice President—was even more aggressive in his Kaskus comments between 2014 and 2023. His posts ranged from insulting Prabowo Subianto and his family, mocking former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to openly expressing sexual interest toward a female celebrity.

Contrast this with a student who merely uploaded an AI-generated meme without the intention to spread false information or threaten violence—immediately criminalized.

Many ordinary Indonesians, when shown the AI-generated image, would not even recognize who the figures are. This is precisely how AI visualization works.

A Dangerous Precedent in the Eyes of the World

If this trend of criminalization continues, Indonesia risks being seen as a country that champions technology while repressing creativity; that promotes AI while oppressing its users; that creates laws but enforces them selectively.

Such precedents will damage Indonesia’s international reputation, particularly regarding digital democracy and freedom of creative expression.

Democracy Needs Ethics, Not Fear

Satirical works, however controversial, are part of the dynamics of modern society. AI is merely a tool; it is humans who need understanding. Thus, the state should act as a guide and protector—not as an executioner.

It is time for the government to establish AI regulations rooted in ethics and common sense, rather than in momentary political sensitivities.

If the government is not prepared for the risks of AI technology, it would be better to stop the empty talk about the “AI revolution” in schools and universities—talk that only breeds fear and kills the creativity of the younger generation.

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Monday, 12 May 2025

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Gibran’s Vice-Presidential Bid: Political Rigging Wrapped in Democracy

Behind the rhetoric of democracy, political rigging Moves Smoothly. The case of Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s vice-presidential candidacy is just one mirror reflecting how easily the law can be misused to sustain power. 

Now, the initiative from several retired military generals to remove Gibran from his position as Vice President has sparked national controversy. Not long after, a counter-response emerged, with support for Gibran coming from another group of retired generals led by Wiranto and Agum Gumelar.

The public now witnesses once again the sharp divisions within the ranks of former military officers resurfacing. Yet beneath these dynamics lies a crucial point that must not be ignored: Gibran’s candidacy itself was a collective failure of many institutions and political elites.

The fundamental question is: how was Gibran able to become a vice-presidential candidate in the first place?

Not a True Representation of the Youth

Gibran has often been sold as a symbol of the youth in the 2024 presidential contest. In reality, his candidacy did not emerge organically. He does not represent a youth movement or aspiration but is a product of high-level political intervention.

His uncle, Anwar Usman, who was then the Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, played a key role in paving Gibran’s way through a controversial ruling that created a legal loophole for the age requirement of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The ruling drew widespread criticism and was seen as undermining the integrity of the Constitutional Court as the guardian of the constitution.

It was this ruling that opened the path for Gibran—not because of any grassroots youth movement, let alone a merit-based selection process.

Gibran is not a symbol of the youth struggle. He did not emerge naturally from the public sphere but through a privileged path enabled by legal machinations. Even his candidacy for Mayor of Surakarta was not free from politically engineered red-carpet treatment.

True youth leaders are born from spaces of struggle, not from legal manipulation and dynastic power. Therefore, the claim that Gibran represents the youth is a hollow narrative aimed at repackaging old political interests in a new face.

The Collective Failure of Elites and Institutions

Gibran was able to run not only because of the Constitutional Court’s decision but also due to the approval of the General Elections Commission (KPU), the Elections Supervisory Board (Bawaslu), and political parties that should have upheld democratic ethics. Even parts of society and the media contributed to normalizing the narrative of dynastic politics.

If there is now a movement demanding his removal, it cannot be viewed separately from the collective failures of the elites who previously allowed him to ascend to power without resistance.

It is also important to mention major figures like Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo. 

These presidential candidates never firmly rejected Gibran’s candidacy during the official registration process with the KPU. In fact, reports indicate that Gibran was once considered as a potential running mate for both, showing that it was not only Prabowo who viewed Gibran as a viable option.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) had even named Gibran as one of the potential vice-presidential candidates on their radar. When Gibran chose to side with Prabowo, only then did voices of disappointment emerge. None of the major parties initially challenged or rejected the legal process that paved the way for Gibran. Legal challenges only arose after the Prabowo-Gibran ticket won the 2024 election. 

Criticism of the Constitutional Court’s ruling and alleged power plays became louder only when the outcome was no longer in their favor. This reveals how many political elites chose silence as long as the system served their interests.

Disagreements among retired generals are nothing new

History records the emergence of “Petisi 50” (Petition of Fifty) in the 1980s, signed by a group of military and civilian figures as a form of criticism and correction towards President Soeharto.

Now, similar tensions have resurfaced. This time, however, the target is the newly elected Vice President, Gibran, who, alongside Prabowo, has not yet served even a full year in office. The difference is that while political legitimacy has been secured, moral legitimacy remains in question.

Yet one thing remains the same: the voices of retired generals often reflect anxieties about the nation’s direction. In today’s context, this anxiety should not be simplified as merely “pro” or “anti” toward a single figure but seen as a reflection of a deeper systemic crisis of legitimacy.

The controversy surrounding Gibran is not merely elite political drama. It is a reflection of a systemic crisis: a crisis of leadership, a crisis of institutional integrity, and a crisis of public trust in the democratic process.

We are facing a situation where laws can be bent, and political elites across factions can accept it as long as it serves their chances of victory. Only when they lose do they question the system. This is not democracy; this is a competition drenched in pretense.

Gibran’s vice-presidential candidacy did not emerge from a healthy democracy but from legal manipulation and political compromise. Now, as various parties, including those who once defended the republic with arms, begin to voice rejection, we must reflect more deeply: this is not merely about Gibran; it is about a nation losing its ethical footing and common sense.

If this nation is to escape this cycle of crisis, the first step is to admit that all of us—both the elites and the people—have allowed these deviations to happen. As long as we refuse to acknowledge this truth, such controversies will continue to repeat themselves every five years in different forms.

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05 May 2025

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Egypt's former president Mohamed Mursi has died in court: Public prosecutor

Former Egyptian president Mohamed Mursi died on Monday after he collapsed in a defendants' cage after speaking in court, Egypt's public prosecutor said.

He added that the former leader, 67, was pronounced dead at 4:50 pm CET in the hospital. A medical report done on Mursi's body showed no signs of recent injuries.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist organisation Mursi belonged to and which is now considered by the state to be a terrorist organisation, said in a statement that its former leader's death is "full-fledged murder" and called for masses to attend the funeral.

"Neither the shock of the news nor the haste in spreading information about the details of (Mursi's) death will change the features of this full-fledged murder," the Islamist group said in a statement on its website.

Mursi, Egypt's first democratically-elected president, was toppled by the military in 2013 after mass protests against this rule.

State television said he was in court for a hearing on charges of espionage emanating from suspected contacts with the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

The ousted leader was serving a 20-year prison sentence for a conviction arising from the killing of protesters during demonstrations in 2012 and a life sentence for espionage in a case related to Qatar.

Mursi's troubled one-year presidency

Mursi, a civil engineer with a doctorate from the University of Southern California, grew up in a village in the Nile Delta province of Sharqiya.

He was propelled to power after the Muslim Brotherhood won an election following a popular uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

Mursi promised a moderate Islamist agenda to steer Egypt into a new democratic era where autocracy would be replaced by a transparent government that respected human rights.

He told Egyptians he would deliver an "Egyptian renaissance with an Islamic foundation".

But when he got to power, Mursi made the tactical mistake in Egyptian politics of antagonising the military. The army chief appointed by Mursi, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, eventually turned on him.

When mass discontent spilt out to the streets, Sisi adviced Mursi to make compromises with his political opponents, which he refused and instead reached out mainly to other Islamists.

A youth movement called Tamarud, which means "rebellion" in Arabic started a petition for Mursi to step down. Eventually, millions took to the streets demanding that he leave.

People accused him of usurping powers, imposing the Brotherhood's conservative brand of Islam and mismanaging the economy, all of which he denied.

On July 3, 2013, Sisi appeared on television to announce the end of Mursi's troubled one year-presidency and plans for new elections.

A crackdown happened, which saw most of the Brotherhood's leaders put in jail. Sisi then took over the government, cementing his power and restoring the kind of military-backed government that Mursi had tried to break for good.

Poor health in jail

Mursi's lawyer said the former leader's health had been poor in jail. "We had put in several requests for treatment, some were accepted and others were not," the lawyer, Abdel-Menem Abdel-Maqsood, told Reuters.

Mursi's family had also previously said that his health had deteriorated in prison and that they were rarely allowed to visit.

His body was taken to the Toray prison hospital, state television reported.

Authorities refuse to bury Mursi in family cemetery

Egyptian authorities refused to have Mursi buried in the family cemetery, Mursi's son Abdullah Mohamed Mursi told Reuters on Monday.

The son said that Mursi's family did not know the location of his body and that their only contact with the authorities was through the family's lawyers.

"We know nothing about him and no one is in touch with us, and we don't know if we are going to wash him or say a prayer to him or not," Abdullah said.

"Putting doubts aside, he has become a martyr today with the fulfilment of God's order ... Our prayers are with him," Erdogan said.

"Condolences to all my brothers who walked the same path as he did. Condolences to the people of Egypt. Condolences to his family and those close to him."

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas said Mursi had "served Egypt and the (Muslim) nation and the Palestinian cause".

Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, a backer of Mursi and his Brotherhood, tweeted his condolences to Mursi's family "and to the brotherly Egyptian people".

Amnesty International called on Egyptian authorities to launch a fair inquiry into the death of Mursi.

"We call on Egyptian authorities to conduct an impartial, thorough and transparent investigation into the circumstances of Mursi's death, including his solitary confinement and isolation from the outside world," Amnesty tweeted in Arabic.

It also urged for an investigation into the medical care Mursi was receiving, and for anyone found responsible for mistreatment 

Egypt's former president Mohamed Mursi has died in court: Public prosecutor

Egypt's former president Mohamed Mursi has died in court: Public prosecutor Egypt's former president Mohamed Mursi collapsed in his cage after speaking in court, said Egypt's public prosec...

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'Jokowi’s magic has now gone': Prabowo ready for presidential debate

Terrorism, human rights, legal affairs and corruption will take centre stage when President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and his opponent Prabowo Subianto square off in the first presidential debate of 2019.

Tens of millions of Indonesians are expected to tune in for the debatel, which will also feature Widodo's running mate, the Islamic cleric Ma'ruf Amin, and Prabowo's offsider, former Jakarta deputy governor Sandiaga Uno.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo may be targeted for not making enough progress in tackling endemic corruption in Indonesia.

Both camps have indicated they will try to focus on the issues that matter to voters and their political programs – rather than ramping up political attacks on their opponents – but both sides have vulnerabilities that may be too tempting for the other to ignore.

Prabowo is still dogged by allegations of human rights abuses taking place when he was a military commander in East Timor, and alleged involvement in the kidnapping of activists during the 1998 reformasi demonstrations that led to the end of former president Suharto's long rule – charges he has always denied.

The challenger, in turn, may target Widodo for not making enough progress in tackling endemic corruption in Indonesia.

Neither candidate had yet made big promises to tackle these issues, he said, but both had indicated their support for greater religious tolerance – a founding principle of Indonesia, but one that has been eroded by the rise of Islamism in recent years.

Prabowo-Sandi campaign spokesman Andre Rosiade flagged ahead of the debate the case of Novel Baswedan – an investigator with the respected Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (anti-corruption commission, or KPK) – who was attacked with hydrochloric acid in April 2017, and whose case remains unsolved, will likely be raised.

Rosiade said that "God willing, Prabowo and Sandi will solve it within 100 days [if they win the election] so that there will be legal certainty for KPK investigators that no more a group of thugs could terrorise KPK".

Rosiade claimed the shine had gone from the still-popular President.

"The most important thing is that Jokowi’s magic has now gone. He is in fact nothing special; we’ve seen it in the last four years. He offered hope and how he has no more hope [to offer]," he said.

"We won’t be attacking [Widodo and Amin]. We will only propose ideas for betterment."

Aria Bima, an official in the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin campaign team, said the President and his running mate would focus on the goverment's achievments in the nearly five years since the last election, and their plans for the future.

"We will say, you said that building infrastructure is not important, we will explain that it is not the case, that infrastructure is important. They [Prabowo] said that Indonesia will be extinct one day [an infamous claim made by the candidate in a 2018 speech], we will explain the fact that Indonesia is one among a handful of the most productive countries in the world. We want to build up a good spirit," he said.

Human Rights Watch Indonesia researcher Andreas Harsono suggested neither of the candidates were likely to criticise the other on how to tackle terrorism, but each could critique the other on human rights and corruption.

"What are the biggest human rights issues in Indonesia? According to several public surveys, there are three issues. One is religious violence and intolerance; the second is land grabbing for palm oil plantations and mining; and the third is discrimination against women – female genital mutilation, child marriages, and the mandatory wearing of hijabs [in some places]," he said.

Infrastructure investment, including in road, rail and housing, has been a major focus for Widodo in his first term.

If re-elected – Widodo leads Prabowo in reputable polls – the President's campaign team says he will focus on investment in human capital and look to spend more on schools, universities and health care in his second term.

Prabowo, for his part, has promised tax cuts (though few Indonesians actually pay tax) and programs to improve childhood nutrition so far. Further major promises are expected in the lead up to the Aprl 17 poll, when Indonesians will also vote for local members of parliament.

brisbane times

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Indonesia: Millions gather for anti-government rally in Jakarta

By Dandy Koswaraputra | Anadolu

JAKARTA: More than 2 million Indonesians gathered in capital Jakarta on Sunday to mark the second anniversary of the "212 movement" by holding a peaceful anti-government rally.

The protesters read verses from the holy Quran and sang songs against incumbent President Joko Widodo.

"People are lied to, promises are denied, scholars are tyrannised, mandates are betrayed. In 2019, replace the senseless president," said the lyrics of one song.

The protesters dressed in white poured into Jakarta on Saturday night from several cities. They camped overnight to pray in congregation at dawn.

Some 20,000 troops were deployed for their security.

The "212 movement" was formed after a rally on Dec. 2, 2016 to call for the prosecution over blasphemy of former Jakarta Governor Basuki "Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, a Christian of Chinese descent.

He was convicted and sentenced to two years in prison in May.    

The Peninsula Qatar

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Rupiah at lowest since Asian financial crisis, but Indonesia keeps calm and carries on

With consumer prices falling, wages rising and inflation under control, the Bank Indonesia governor rubbishes comparisons with 20 years ago. “Come on!,” he says. “You make it sound like Indonesia is falling apart”

BY DAVID G ROSE

Saturday, 6 OCT 2018

The Asian financial crisis may have occurred two decades ago, but it continues to cast a long shadow over Indonesia. The country’s modern image was defined in the summer of 1998 as a currency crash sparked social and political chaos, culminating in the downfall of President Suharto and the birth of a reformed democracy.

This week, the rupiah fell to its lowest level since that fateful summer; it is now trading at more than 15,000 rupiah to the US dollar, having weakened by 10 per cent overall this year.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy has proved to be as vulnerable as other emerging markets to the uncertainty and turbulence triggered by the United States-China trade war and rising oil prices. Countries as diverse as Turkey, India, Argentina and South Africa have all seen their currencies weaken as investors retreat to more traditional safe havens and stores of value.

But the rupiah’s continued depreciation is a blow to Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, which has been determined to avoid another rout, increasing interest rates five times since May in an attempt to stabilise the currency.

But while Indonesian holidaymakers may be disappointed in the exchange rate for the rupiah while travelling abroad, back home there is no sense of an imminent crisis.

Consumer prices are actually falling rather than rising, largely due to a decrease in prices on staple foods such as chicken, eggs, onions and chillies. Wages are also slightly rising and, for the moment, inflation is under control.

As Perry Warjiyo, the governor of Indonesia’s central bank, puts it, “the fundamentals of the economy are sound”. Warjiyo dismissed comparisons to 1998 when asked this week about the currency’s current slump, which made headlines across the region.

“Why do you keep saying it’s ‘the lowest since the Asian crisis’, this kind of thing?” he tells This Week In Asia. “You make it sound like Indonesia is falling apart.”

He adds: “How much has the rupiah fallen this year? 9.8 per cent. But how much has the [Indian] rupee fallen? Twelve per cent. How much is the decline in Turkey, how much in South Africa, how much in Argentina?

“Come on! Compare [the rupiah] with the rupee and other countries’ currencies. Our depreciation sends many jitters, but it is still manageable. And of course our rupiah is undervalued, compared to its fundamentals.”

The BI governor is aiming to restore confidence not just in the aftermath of a terrible earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi, but in advance of the annual World Bank and International Monetary Fund meetings that will take place in Bali next week.

The biggest players in world finance and development economics will be arriving and Indonesia – as well as the economy of the wider region – will be the focus of attention.

South China Morning Post

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New Study Shows Half of Cancer Patients are Killed by Chemotherapy, Not Cancer

No matter how much doctors push the treatment, chemotherapy might not be the best option in the fight against cancer, as a new study shows up to 50 percent of patients are killed by the drugs — not the disease, itself.

Researchers from Public Health England and Cancer Research UK performed a groundbreaking study examining for the first time the numbers of cancer patients who died within 30 days of beginning chemotherapy — indicating the treatment, not cancer, was the cause of death.

Looking at those death rates in hospitals across the U.K., researchers found an alarming mortality rate associated with chemotherapy.

Across "England around 8.4 percent of patients with lung cancer, and 2.4 percent of breast cancer patients died within a month," the Telegraph reported.

"But in some hospitals, the figure was far higher. In Milton Keynes, the death rate for lung cancer treatment was 50.9 percent, although it was based on a very small number of patients."

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My friend the wind song | Demis Roussos

My Friend The Wind is a song by Greek singer Demis Roussos. It was released as a single in 1973.

The song was written by Alec R. Costandinos and Stelios Vlavianos.

Roussos was born and raised in Alexandria, Egypt, in a Greek family where his father George (Yorgos) Roussos was a classical guitarist and an engineer and his mother Olga was a singer; her family originally came from Greece.

As a child, he studied music and joined the Greek Church Byzantine choir in Alexandria. His formative years in the ancient port city's cosmopolitan atmosphere were influenced by jazz, but also traditional Arab and Greek Orthodox music. His parents lost their possessions during the Suez Crisis and consequently decided to move to Greece.

Demis Roussos has died on January 25, 2015, in Athens, Greece

- Source of stories: Wikipedia

Song lyrics:

My friend the wind will come from the hills 
When dawn will rise, he'll wake me again 
My friend the wind will tell me a secret 
He shares with me, he shares with me

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Breaking: At least 82 dead as earthquake rocks Lombok and Bali

At least 82 people have died after a powerful earthquake rocked the Indonesian tourist islands of Lombok and neighbouring Bali, triggering a tsunami warning just a week after another quake in the same region killed 16 people.

The magnitude 7 earthquake hit about 6.46pm Jakarta time (9.46pm AEST) on Sunday, 27 kilometres north-east of northern Lombok at a 15-kilometre depth.

Multiple deaths after powerful earthquake rocks Lombok and Bali

Multiple deaths after powerful earthquake rocks Lombok and Bali By James Massola Dozens of people have died after a powerful earthquake rocked the Indonesian tourist islands of Lombok and neigh...

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How Beijing is winning control of the South China Sea

Erratic US policy and fraying alliances give China a free hand

SIMON ROUGHNEEN, Asia regional correspondent

Chinese warships and fighter jets take part in a military display in the South China Sea on April 12.   © Reuters

Even by his outspoken standards, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's account of a conversation he had with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was startling.

During a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing in May 2017, the subject turned to whether the Philippines would seek to drill for oil in a part of the South China Sea claimed by both countries. Duterte said he was given a blunt warning by China's president.

"[Xi's] response to me [was], 'We're friends, we don't want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we'll go to war," Duterte recounted.

A year later, Duterte was asked for a response to news that China had landed long-range bombers on one of the South China Sea's Paracel Islands -- a milestone that suggests the People's Liberation Army Air Force can easily make the short hop to most of Southeast Asia from its new airstrips. "What's the point of questioning whether the planes there land or not?" Duterte responded.

His refusal to condemn China's military buildup underlines China's success in subduing its rivals in the South China Sea. Since 2013 China has expanded artificial islands and reefs in the sea and subsequently installed a network of runways, missile launchers, barracks and communications facilities.

These military advances have led many to wonder if Beijing has already established unassailable control over the disputed waters. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have overlapping claims to parts of the South China Sea and its islands – claims that are looking increasingly forlorn in the wake of China's military buildup.

"What China is winning is de facto control of nearly the entire South China Sea, including all activities and resources in it, despite the other surrounding Southeast Asian states' respective legal rights and entitlements under international law," said Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.

At stake is the huge commercial and military leverage that comes with controlling one of the world's most important shipping lanes, through which up to $5 trillion worth of trade passes each year.

U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis insists that China faces "consequences" for the "militarization" of South China Sea, which he says is being done for "the purposes of intimidation and coercion."

"There are consequences that will continue to come home to roost, so to speak, with China, if they do not find the way to work more collaboratively with all of the nations," Mattis said on June 2 at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a security conference organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Mac Thornberry, chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, added that the U.S. naval presence means China does not have a free hand in the South China Sea.

"I think you will see more and more nations working together to affirm freedom of navigation through the South China Sea and other international waters," Thornberry told the Nikkei Asian Review.

But what those consequences might be was left unsaid by Mattis, who suggested that there was little prospect of forcing China to give up its growing network of military facilities dotting the sea.

"We all know nobody is ready to invade," he said.

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis talked up the "Indo-Pacific" strategy in his June 2 speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)

Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, "There is no reasonable basis for the U.S. to use military force to push China off its outposts, nor would any country in the region support such an effort."

The U.S. pushback so far has included disinviting China from a major Pacific naval exercise. It also continues to carry out so-called freedom of navigation operations, or FONOPs, the most recent of which took place on May 27. This was followed by U.S. military aircraft flying over the Paracel Islands in early June, a move that prompted a countercharge of "militarization'" against the U.S. by China's Foreign Ministry.

China regards the FONOPs as sabre-rattling and "a challenge to [our] sovereignty," according to Lt. Gen. He Lei, Beijing's lead representative at the Singapore conference.

He restated the government position on troops and weapons on islands in the South China Sea, describing the deployments as an assertion of sovereignty and said that allegations of militarization were "hyped up" by the U.S.

Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana stopped short of endorsing the FONOPs but told the Nikkei Asian Review that "it is our belief that those sea lanes should be left open and free."

In contrast to Duterte's reluctance to confront China, his predecessor as president, Benigno Aquino, was frequently outspoken about China's increasing control of the sea. He pressed a case against Beijing to an arbitration tribunal in 2013 after a protracted naval stand-off the year before around Scarborough Shoal, a rock claimed by both countries and lying about 120 nautical miles off the Luzon coast.

In mid-2016 the tribunal dismissed China's expansive "nine-dash line" claim to much of the South China Sea and its artificial island-building and expansion, all of which the tribunal said contravened the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS.

Duterte said he would not "flaunt" the tribunal outcome, in contrast with his campaign pledge to assert the country's sovereignty -- he even vowed to ride a jet ski to one of China's artificial islands and plant the Philippine flag there. Manila hopes for significant Chinese investment in roads, rail and ports, as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, a multi continent plan outlining China-backed infrastructure upgrades.

Filipino activists rally outside the Chinese Consulate in Manila in February to protest Beijing's continued reclamation activities in the South China Sea.   © Reuters

Defense Secretary Lorenzana emphasized in remarks to the media in Singapore that good relations with China remain a priority, regardless of bilateral disputes. "It is just natural for us to befriend our neighbour. We cannot avoid dealing with China, they are near, [and] many Filipinos, including me, have Chinese blood."

For the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, there are growing doubts about whether the American navy would protect them in a conflict with China, something Duterte, a brusque critic of the U.S., has questioned publicly.

Mattis, like former President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, sidestepped a question on that issue in Singapore, saying, "The reason why public figures do not want to give specific answers is that these are complex issues."

American evasiveness is a reminder to the Philippines that the U.S. might not risk war with China over its old ally. "It is debatable whether Filipinos believe that the U.S. will have its back in a conflict with China," Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines said. "Duterte's repeated statements against the reliability of the U.S. as an ally tends to undermine this further."

Duterte's reticence has left Vietnam as the sole claimant willing to speak up. Discussing recent developments in the South China Sea, Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Ngo Xuan Lich told the Singapore conference, "Under no circumstances could we excuse militarization by deploying weapons and military hardware over disputed areas against regional commitments."

Lich did not name-check China in his speech, but described "a serious breach to the sovereignty" of another country that "violates international laws, complicates the situation and negatively affects regional peace, stability and security."

As well as hindering oil and gas projects in waters close to Vietnam, China's navy has for several years harassed Vietnamese fishing boats -- as it does around the Philippines -- and continues to occupy islands seized from Vietnam nearly five decades ago.

In 2014, anti-China riots kicked off across Vietnam after China placed an oil rig in South China Sea waters claimed by Hanoi. In early June there were demonstrations against proposals that protesters claimed will give Chinese businesses favoured access in so-called Special Economic Zones in Vietnam.

The Lan Tay gas platform, operated by Rosneft Vietnam, sits in the South China Sea off the Vietnamese coast. China has been hindering Vietnam's oil exploration activities in the sea.   © Reuters

Vietnam's response to potential isolation has been a cautious dalliance with the U.S. In late 2016, shortly before the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, American warships docked in Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay naval base, the first such visit since the former antagonists normalized ties in 1995. That landmark was followed in March this year by the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the central Vietnam city of Danang.

Hanoi recently called for greater Japanese involvement in the region's maritime disputes, perhaps signalling an interest in a wider effort to counter China. But unlike in the Philippines, Vietnam, which like China is a single party communist-run state, is not a U.S. treaty ally. Historical and ideological differences mean that there are limits to how closely Vietnam will align with the U.S.

"I think there is a good momentum with defence cooperation with the U.S. But I don't think that it would immediately mean jumping into the 'American camp,' whatever it means," said Huong Le Thu, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

From Bollywood to Hollywood

The U.S. has sought to widen the array of countries it hopes will join it in countering China's rising influence. During his 12-day swing through Asia in late 2017, Trump peppered his speeches with references to the "Indo-Pacific," dispensing with the long-established "Asia-Pacific" label in favour of a more expansive term first used by Japan.

The "Indo-Pacific" was then mentioned throughout the U.S. National Security Strategy published soon after Trump's Asia trip -- a document that alleged China aims to "challenge American power" and "is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda."

Three days before his Singapore speech, Mattis announced in Hawaii that the U.S. Pacific Command would be renamed the Indo-Pacific Command, describing the expanded theatre as stretching "from Bollywood to Hollywood."

Mattis later added some gravitas to the cinematic catchphrase, saying in Singapore that "standing shoulder to shoulder with India, ASEAN and our treaty allies and other partners, America seeks to build an Indo-Pacific where sovereignty and territorial integrity are safeguarded -- the promise of freedom fulfilled and prosperity prevails for all."

The Trump administration clearly hopes for greater Indian involvement in its efforts to counter China's growing influence. Kori Schake, deputy director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that while "Indo-Pacific isn't yet an established part of the lexicon," the implications of the term are clear.

"India is an Asian power. The countries adopting the term are encouraging India into greater cooperation in maintaining the maritime commons in the Indian and Pacific oceans," said Schake, a former U.S. State Department official.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference, in Singapore on June 1. (Photo by Simon Roughneen)

Modi enthusiastically echoed American rhetoric about a "shared vision of an open, stable, secure and prosperous" Indo-Pacific, which he described as "a natural region" -- countering those who wonder if an area stretching from Bollywood to Hollywood might too vast and desperate to be cast into a geopolitical fact on the ground.

But Modi also heaped praise on China, despite its border dispute with India and increasingly close economic ties with Pakistan, India's neighbour and nuclear rival.

"Our cooperation is expanding. Trade is growing. And, we have displayed maturity and wisdom in managing issues and ensuring a peaceful border," Modi said.

China's foreign ministry described Modi's speech as "positive," while one of its military delegation at the Singapore conference gloated that India and the U.S. "have different understandings, different interpretations, of this Indo-Pacific."

China's first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier   © Kyodo

It is perhaps no surprise then that China's rivals in the South China Sea do not yet regard the nascent Indo-Pacific alliance-building as something to pin their hopes on when it comes to controlling of the sea.

"We are witnessing the great power shift toward Asia-Pacific with the 'Indo-Pacific strategy,' Belt and Road Initiative and a series of country grouping[s] in the region," Lich said, cautioning that "the outcomes for the region and the world are somewhat yet to be unveiled."

Lich's Philippine counterpart was even more circumspect, particularly regarding the Indo-Pacific concept. "I have to study it some more," Lorenzana said. "This is a new construct in this area."

Nikkei staff writers Mikhail Flores in Manila and Atsushi Tomiyama in Hanoi contributed to this article.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/How-Beijing-is-winning-control-of-the-South-China-Sea

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